MLB QUARTER POLE UPDATE

• Posted on 31 May 2023
• By Carl Lemelin
• 0

Have we underrated the impact of losing legendary backstop Yadier Molina when evaluating the 2023 version of this iconic franchise? The Cards aren't the only ones to disappoint their fans in the early season.

It seems that all we did was blink, and 50 MLB games went by. The quarter mark of the season has come and gone, which means we can assess who’s doing better and worse than expected, and if those trends are likely to continue, or not, through the dog days of summer.

Based on my previous blog (2023 MLB Preview), I’ve identified the five most pleasant surprise teams and the five biggest underachievers of the early season. Then, I used their current ranks in the four key areas (Hitting-OPS, Starting Pitching-ERA, Relief Pitching-WHIP, and Defense-Def. Eff.), and the context in which they were achieved to ascertain whether each team’s unexpected performance is likely to be sustained or reversed.

*Team ranks are as of May 19^th

BIGGEST OVERACHIEVERS

1- Baltimore Orioles: To say the O’s rebuild is ahead of schedule is the understatement of the decade! We knew they would be better this year, but giving the A.L. East triumvirate of the Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays a run? Adley Rutschman’s leadership on and off the field belies his years. Baltimore ranks 9^th in runs, OPS, and relief WHIP. We predicted the bullpen was very strong, but they are scoring more runs than projected. 21^st and 18^th ranks in starter ERA and defensive efficiency respectively however do suggest it will be difficult for the upstart squad to keep up with the big boys all the way to the finish line. They have also been one of the rare teams to avoid injuries to their key players, save starting pitcher John Means.

2- Tampa Bay Rays: OK, we knew they were good. But .700 ball through 50 games, including a record tying 13-0 start and only 4 home losses? The drum just keeps beating for the analytics kings. Randy Arozarena has achieved star status, Wander Franco has bounced back from a challenging sophomore season, and the rotation is by far the best in MLB so far, with ace Tyler Glasnow just getting his season started. In fact, the only category the Rays aren’t top ranked is where we thought they would be dominant once again, relief pitching (ranked 8^th). They probably won’t keep-up to that pace through the 162-game grind, but a playoff spot is all but clinched, and they must be considered the current clear-cut favorites to win it all.

3- Pittsburgh Pirates: We are already seeing the signs pointing to a return the Earth from the unbelievable heights they experienced in April. The Pirates leading the Central, and tied for the best record in the NL at one point? “That’s impossible” everyone was saying. Funny thing is that they are still in the hunt in a very weak NL Central, but they are back to .500, and the new balanced schedule means they have many games left to play against opponents from the very strong NL East and West. What’s even more impressive about their early success is they did it without their second-best hitter, young phenom Oneil Cruz. It turns out – surprisingly – starting pitching (ranked 7^th) is what fueled the Bucko’s spring surge. Mitch Keller has been a true ace, with 8 of his 11 starts qualifying as a quality start. Roansy Contreras, and Johan Oviedo also performed above their weight in April, but have regressed in May. All other Pirates’ ranks fall 15^th or worse, so don’t bet on them playing meaningful games in September.

4- Boston Red Sox: The BoSox’ 3^rd ranked offense has carried them all year. What’s unusual here is that everything the Red Sox have done seems to match our pre-season grades (B offense, D+ starting pitching (ranked 28^th), B- bullpen (20^th), and D defense (22^nd)), yet they’re over .500 and competing for a playoff spot. For this exact reason, I don’t see them outlasting some of the much more complete rosters in the Junior Circuit come summer’s end. Hopefully for Red Sox Nation, the brass doesn’t misread the situation and sell the farm to get help at the deadline, because this start is a mirage.

5- Arizona Diamondbacks: We called it in our pre-season preview: “(…) could (be) the surprise of the 2023 season”. But Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, who have been studs, will need help from the rest of the rotation and the pen (both ranked 18^th) if the D-backs are to take the next step and challenge for the postseason. Lourdes Gurriel Jr is one of the best off-season acquisitions and hyped rookie Corbin Carroll hasn’t disappointed. Look for the Desert Snakes to make some subtle moves before the July 31^st trade deadline to help in a run at the fall dance.

BIGGEST UNDERACHIEVERS

1- St-Louis Cardinals: This classic NL franchise has been unrecognizable! 22^nd in pitching (both starters and relievers), and 29^th in defensive efficiency? The Cards? Was Yadier Molina even more crucial to this franchise’s success than we thought? I did have their rotation ranked as average, but they have proven to be way below that, and not catching the ball hurts the hurlers’ numbers even more. Age seems to have finally caught up to Cards legend Adam Wainwright, now without his long-time reliable battery mate. At least, Myles Mikolas seems to be rounding into form, as the Birds slowly inch their way back toward the .500 mark, but this rotation needs a rebuild. If the Cards are to win this shockingly still claimable division, the bullpen will need to step it up, and guys like Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson will need to help Nolan Gorman and Paul Goldschmidt carry the lineup the rest of the way.

2- Chicago White Sox: Have we all overrated the talent level on the South Side of Chicago? For over three years now, names like Luis Robert, Andrew Vaughn, Joan Moncada, and Eloy Jimenez have been touted left and right as the best young core of hitters in the game. This team was even considered one of the favorites to win it all last year, before completely flaming out. Not only have they not bounced back from a tumultuous 2022 campaign, but they have even regressed further! And what’s wrong with dependable .300 all-star hitter Tim Anderson? Star hitters being just average or worse haven’t helped, but pitching (starters are ranked 23^rd, relievers 29^th) and defense (25^th) are what have the ChiSox mired in 4^th place of the weakest division in baseball. The struggles of pre-season Cy Young candidate Dylan Cease are puzzling. At least, the return of closer and cancer survivor Liam Hendricks should provide a welcome emotional boost. Another lifeline for the Sox is the fact that no one has run away with the division, so anything is still possible.

3- New York Mets: Here is a clear case of key injuries playing a major role in the Queen’s ball club woes. Ace Justin Verlander missed the first month-and-a-half, and Edwin Diaz – the best closer in MLB – will miss the entire season after sustaining a knee injury celebrating a big World Baseball Classic win for Puerto Rico. Max Scherzer seems to be rounding into form but had a horrible first month. As a result, the team we thought had the best 1-2 punch atop the rotation now ranks near the bottom in starter ERA (5.29, good for 25^th). Pete Alonso is doing all he can to create offense, but star hitters Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, and Brandon Nimmo have been wildly inconsistent. The good news is that the Mets catch the ball well (8^th in Def. eff.) and have the 4^th best bullpen WHIP, despite the Diaz calamity. Look for the lineup to heat up as the weather does, and the Mets to make a run at the playoffs as expected.

4- San Diego Padres: World Series favorites? Oops, can I get a mulligan here? Huge off-season acquisition, Xander Bogaerts, hasn’t carried his great April into May, Juan Soto has just started to look like his old self after an awful 2022 and April 2023 by his lofty standards, and where is the real Manny Machado? The best OPS after Soto’s .928 on what was considered a semi all-star lineup is Fernando Tatis’ meager .766. All this adds up to a bewildering 26^th ranked offense. The rotation has been just OK, but the bullpen (6^th in WHIP) and defense (3^rd) are positives to draw upon as this scary roster tries to make production match the hype. The talent level is simply too high to expect this team to keep hovering around the .500 mark. The Padres will give the Dodgers a run for their money come September, you can bank on it… I hope?

5- Houston Astros: Most may not have the defending champs on a list of disappointing teams, but let’s look back at my season preview grades for the ‘Stros: A, A-, A, and A+ (for hitting, starting pitching, bullpen, and defense). They have been playing up to these juggernaut ratings lately, but the simple fact that they aren’t leading the AL West is the reason I mention them here. The pitching is as advertised (starters are 6^th and relievers 1^st), but the hitting has been way underperforming expectations. Yordan Alvarez is having an MVP-type season once again, but the injury to Jose Altuve and big-name bats like Alex Bregman and key off-season signee Jose Abreu have been very slow coming out of the gates so far. Maybe the return of a pure hitter like Michael Brantley is what Houston needs to stabilize the middle of the order, but he is still having issues with a shoulder that’s kept him off the lineup all year. Let’s call it a championship hangover and say I’m not too worried about the Space Crew’s prospects going forward.