2023 MLB PREVIEW

• Posted on 4 April 2023
• By Carl Lemelin
• 0

Hope springs eternal this time of the year, but even if every team starts 0-0, we all know who the favorites are... Or do we?

Spring has just sprung, and the ironic thing is Spring Training baseball has come to an end. The World Baseball Classic gave us an early taste of meaningful, highly dramatic baseball action with its best edition ever that ended in a record third title for the Japanese squad.

But now, time has come to get ready for the best day of the year for any baseball fan, Opening Day! To get you all prepped for the 2023 MLB season, I will go through every team’s outlook, trying to forecast each division’s standings, who will make the playoffs, and what the playoff picture may look like when all is said and done in late October, or early November.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, however, because I first must get you caught up on all the rules changes MLB has instituted for the 2023 campaign. Some of them will have a huge impact on the game, and I firmly believe all of them will be great for our viewing experience.

NEW RULES, MORE ACTION!

If you know anyone who doesn’t follow baseball, they’ll tell you the game is too slow, with too many dead zones between the action, and that the games are too long. Basically, the sport is too boring in their view.

To MLB fans, the term “boring”, when describing baseball, is almost blasphemous. But even we must concede that the recent trend of strikeout/walk/homerun-heavy baseball the MLB has delivered under the current analytics era has taken the entertainment value of the sport in a downward tailspin.

If you’re like me, you love the strategy that has always made baseball so enthralling. Unfortunately, the ruling “Moneyball” philosophy that has taken over all MLB front offices – and which provided scientific proof the supreme value of each of a ball game’s available 27 outs – has rendered most of baseball’s traditional strategic offensive moves almost extinct.

Sacrifice bunts? Gifting the opponent an out for 90 more feet just isn’t an acceptable play anymore. Besides, pitchers don’t hit anymore (unless your name Shohei Othani, and he will never be asked to bunt).

Steals and hit-and-run? With the recent emphasis on holding runners  ̶  between modern pitchers’ pick-off moves/slide steps, and catchers’ athleticism and lowered release times  ̶  the running game is a shell of its former self. In fact, the MLB leader in stolen bases has had a sub-40 total in 3 of the past 6 seasons.

Moneyball also demonstrated that organizations should divert their focus from batting average toward on-base-percentage (OBP) and slugging percentage (SLG) when evaluating a player’s offensive value. This has led to the “launch angle/spin rate” revolution we are witnessing in the game, which results in more homeruns, walks, strikeouts, and way less balls in play.

In short, this all translates to much less action on the base paths and in the field where baseball’s best athletes get to express themselves, and thus add entertainment value to the game.

HATS OFF, MLB!

MLB had to react, and to their credit they seem to have pulled off all the right moves with their new set of rules. If the goal was to improve the entertainment value of the game, three issues clearly needed to be addressed: length of games, in-game action, and a renewed focus on the athleticism of its star players.

Here are the new rules for 2023:

• Pitch Clock: the time between each pitch and each plate appearance will be limited by a pitch clock, accelerating the game, and eliminating long voids in action.
• Limited pickoffs: pitchers will be limited to 3 step-offs per plate appearance, further accelerating play, and giving the runners a huge edge in the cat-and-mouse game with hurlers eager to shut down their opponent’s running game.
• Bigger bases: the bases are enlarged from 15 square feet to 18 (some have already tabbed them “pizza boxes”). MLB stated safety reasons for this one, which is legitimate, but combined with the limited pickoffs, it will surely also result in a significant boost in stolen base attempts, considering speed demons will have 4.5 less inches to cover.
• Defensive shifts outlawed: this one had been in the works for a while behind the scenes. The “launch angle” approach to hitting forced defenses to adjust by putting an extra infielder on the hitter’s pull side. Shifting works, the numbers bear it out. That brings averages down and diminished traffic on the bases. As an advocate of the tactical aspect of baseball, I admit I was on the fence on this one at first, but I came to the conclusion that it will promote the comeback of the contact hitter – that traditional number-two guy in the lineup that could win the batting title, and that you could hit-and-run with – adding strategy and motion on the basepaths.

BOLD PREDICTIONS

Forecasting a 162-game marathon is always risky business, especially with baseball, a sport prone to unexplainable prolonged streaks and slumps, and to many lingering injuries due to the grind that is an MLB season.

But hey, it’s so much fun to see how right – or mostly wrong – we were when we look back at it in November. So, here is my shot at glory.

In parentheses are each team’s respective grade for: Lineup / Rotation / Bullpen / Defense.

I consider each of these to be just as important in determining a team’s odds of success, so I weighed each grade the same, then converted them the following numerical values: A+=1, A=2, A-=3, B+=4, B=5, B-=6, C+=7, C=8, C-=9, D+=10, D=11, D-=12. So, the lower the total score, the better the team grade, C being average.

I also considered current known long-term injuries to key players like Jose Altuve, Edwin Diaz, and others in my analysis.

C- Division Champion (league rank)

*Denotes Wild Card team (league rank)

A.L. EAST

1- C(2) New York Yankees (A-/A/C+/A = 14): Add Carlos Rodon and 100-plus innings from Luis Severino to that already solid rotation, and you get an even more potent version of the Yankees than last year’s pennant-winning squad.

2- *(5) Tampa Bay Rays (B-/A-/A/B+ = 15): The eternal “little engine that could” just keep churning out arms, and this year is no different. Match an elite rotation that costs a fraction of other comparable ones to a bullpen that changes the look for opposing hitters at each of their at-bats, and you’ve got a recipe for success year-in and year-out.

3- *(6) Toronto Blue Jays (A+/B-/C+/B- = 20): A top-2 lineup in the majors to which they added two elite defenders in the outfield (Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho). The rotation is solid, but the bullpen still lacks the depth of some other contenders.

4- Boston Red Sox (B/D+/B-/D = 32): The offense will scare opposing hurlers, but there’s no way they will out-score what their horrid pitching and defense will allow. At least Kenley Jansen should help them close out a few more close games.

5- Baltimore Orioles (B-/C-/C/C- = 32): 2022 overperformers, the O’s don’t yet have what it takes to repeat their shocking first-half from last season, but under Adley Rutschman’s and Gunner Henderson’s leadership, this franchise could be on the fast track to contention!

A.L. CENTRAL

1- C(3) Cleveland Guardians (B+/B/A-/B+ = 16): A renewed approach to building from within and focusing on analytics has the Guardians looking like the new Rays. The difference is that they don’t have to contend with the Yankees and Jays to win a pennant. With Emmanuel Clase and James Karinchak, the pen is among the very best.

2- Chicago White Sox (A/B+/C-/C- = 24): Just like in last season’s assessment, they possess all the talent necessary to win this division. Unlike last season, if they want to accomplish that goal, everyone will need to finally play up to said talent level. Maybe the managerial change was just what the doctor ordered?

3- Minnesota Twins (C+/C/B+/C = 27): The ultimate average Joe team, the Twins should flirt with the .500 mark all year with an offense that is too reliant on stars with health issues (Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa), and average pitching and defense. They also lack depth across the board.

4- Detroit Tigers (D/B-/D+/C = 35): Runs will be very hard to come by for the Big Cats from Motown. This is a slow and painful rebuild for Tiger fans, but they are doing it the right way with a few promising arms on the way. There is Miguel Cabrera’s farewell tour to look forward to.

5- Kansas City Royals (C-/D/C-/D = 40): Bobby Witt Jr, Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Brady Singer. That concludes our tour of notable contributors on the Royals roster. Even worse, unlike the Tigers, there isn’t too much to get excited about in the system.

A.L. WEST

1- C(1) Houston Astros (A/A-/A/A+ = 8): The defending World Series champs will be very difficult to get past once again. The ‘Stros have been a model franchise for a while now, and they still have many quality prospects ready to make the jump right now, or soon. Sorry “garbage-can” haters, but you’ll have to deal with the “Cheaters” being a powerhouse for a few more years.

2- *(4) Seattle Mariners (B+/B/A/A = 13): Their combo of pitching and defense is second only to the Astros, but don’t sleep on their improving lineup. The Teoscar Hernandez pick-up, combined with plausible breakout offensive years from Cal Raleigh and Jared Kelenic should make them the sleeper pick for a Cinderella run next fall.

3- Los Angeles Angels (A-/B+/D/A- = 21): “Can the best two players in baseball carry their team to the playoffs?” is THE question of the preseason. If Mike Trout and Shohei Othani are to be showcased in fall’s big tournament, a complete overhaul of that atrocious bullpen will have to be undertaken, because signing Carlos Estevez just doesn’t cut it.

4- Texas Rangers (B-/C+/C-/C- = 31): The lineup is good and should be even better with bounce backs from top-of-the-order stars Marcus Semien and Corey Seager. The rotation gets a boost from the blockbuster signing of ace Jacob DeGrom. Pitching depth and defense are what separate the Rangers from true contention.

5- Oakland A’s (D-/D+/D+/C = 41): The worst lineup in the Majors. There’s only so much the Moneyball philosophy can do for you. A minimum of star power should be required to be worthy of being called a Major League franchise, no?

N.L. EAST

1- C(2) Atlanta Braves (A-/A-/B+/B- = 16): The 2021 World Series champs are favored by many to win a sixth consecutive division pennant. The only question marks entering this season are: will Dansby Swanson’s replacement (TBD) be able to contribute enough with the bat and at shortstop to soften the blow, and will new closer Raisel Iglesias be as effective as Kenley Jansen was.

2- *(5) Philadelphia Phillies (B+/A-/B+/C = 19): The defending N.L. champs made the biggest splash of the off-season, signing superstar shortstop Trea Turner, but can starter Taijuan Walker and reliever Craig Kimbrel offset the departures of Zach Eflin and David Robertson? If so, they will give the Braves a run for their money.

3- New York Mets (B+/A-/B/C = 21): You lose Jacob DeGrom, but sign Justin Verlander. We’ll call it a wash. Robertson will help solidify the bullpen and mitigate the loss of the best closer in the game, Edwin Diaz, to a World Baseball Classic season-ending injury. They’ll be in the mix for a playoff spot.

4- Miami Marlins (D+/A-/C-/C) = 30): Adding Luis Arraez surely helps the top of a depleted lineup, but not enough to lift the Fish anywhere close to the level needed to compete with the stellar top three in this division.

5- Washington Nationals (D/D+/D/D = 43): I’ve got them as the worst roster in baseball. Politics aren’t the only thing in complete disarray in the Nation’s Capital!

N.L. CENTRAL

1- C(3) Milwaukee Brewers (C+/A/B+/B = 18): By far the worst offense among all playoff contenders, but the quality and depth of the pitching makes up for it. Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff cause hitters nightmares and can rival any 1-2 punch in the majors. Star closer Devin Williams has the best changeup in baseball. Now, if only Christian Yelich could find his stroke…

2- *(6) St-Louis Cardinals (A/C/B+/B- = 20): Replacing catching legend Yadier Molina by signing ex-Cub rival Willson Contreras was the best under-the-radar move of the winter. If Jack Flaherty can find his form from 2019, the rotation could be very good, but we’ll call it average for now, and that’s why they’ll have to grind out a wild card spot in the end.

3- Chicago Cubs (C+/C-/B-/B = 27): The Dansby Swanson signing is a huge step toward respectability for the North Siders, but they lack certainty in the bottom 5 of that lineup. The pitching is sub-par, even with the additions of Marcus Stroman and Jameson Taillon.

4- Cincinnati Reds (D+/C-/C-/C- = 37): It’s a shame they don’t have the lineup to take full advantage of their bandbox of a home ballpark. With Joey Votto being a shadow of his former self, and Nick Senzel struggling to figure out Big League pitching, the Reds will be bottom feeders for a while. At least, the pitching side shows some promise.

5- Pittsburgh Pirates (D+/D/C-/C- = 39): Poor, poor Pirates fans… At least they get to watch Oneil Cruz 162 times this season. He’s one of the most exciting players to watch, a truly gifted athlete that doesn’t come along very often in our sport.

N.L. WEST

1- C(1) San Diego Padres (A+/B+/A-/B+ = 12): Fernando Tatis Jr. will be back in late April, Juan Soto will be back to his MVP caliber form, and Xander Bogaerts will provide the quality backup these guys need in the lineup. Elite reliever Josh Hader is primed for a huge bounce-back after an unexplainably horrible 2022 campaign. This roster is the class of the of the Senior Circuit.

2- *(4) Los Angeles Dodgers (A-/A/B+/B+ = 13): The rulers of the West will finally be challenged for the title this season. If they are to defend, J.D. Martinez must provide the depth needed in the middle of the lineup, Max Muncy must rebound to previous form, Trayce Thompson and James Outman need to break out, and Clayton Kershaw must stay healthy.

3- Arizona Diamondbacks (B/C+/C-/C+ = 28): An underrated lineup could make this squad the surprise of the 2023 season. Corbin Carroll is the early favorite to win Rookie of the Year, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and veteran Evan Longoria add depth to a fast improving group. Ace Zac Gallen is the most underrated starter in the Majors.

4- San Francisco Giants (C+/C/B+/D- = 30): Ross Stripling will need to repeat last season’s success with the Blue Jays to support Logan Webb in an otherwise underwhelming starting rotation. Adding Mitch Haniger and a healthy Michael Conforto should help a sub-par offense find a few more runs than last year. The bullpen is top tier.

5- Colorado Rockies (C-/D+/D+/D- = 41): The loss of potential breakout star Brendan Rodgers to a long-term injury is a huge blow to a batting order searching for an identity, and to one the worst defensive lineups in baseball. As always with this franchise, pitching will once again be their downfall.

PLAYOFFS

A.L.C.S.: Houston (1) vs Toronto (6)

N.L.C.S.: San Diego (1) vs Atlanta (2)

World Series: Padres beat the Astros in an instant classic we will be talking about for years to come!

Enjoy the marathon everyone!!!