MLB PLAYOFF PREVIEW: A NOVEL APPROACH

• Posted on 29 September 2024
• By Carl Lemelin
• 0

It took one extra day to make this playoff picture clear. Now can we finally get the entire playoff outlook right once and for all?

Full disclosure: my playoff prognostics record on this blog isn’t at all flattering. But in my defense, neither is any other out there in the sports media world.

The fact is that baseball is as unpredictable a sport as any, and anybody who claims they can tell you with any modicum of confidence who will win this year’s World Series is either a liar or a time traveller visiting from the future.

But why is baseball so difficult to predict? I wanted to know if I was simply using the wrong data when analyzing the playoff power rankings, or if trying to handicap October ball was simply an exercise in futility, doomed to failure until the end of time for anybody who dared to try.

THE PROBLEM

Every expert attempting to forecast the MLB playoffs will use two basic sources of information to draw their conclusions: regular season statistics and current roster make-up – accounting for trade deadline acquisitions and/or any current injuries.

Herein might be where lies the conundrum we are faced with. Regular season data may seem like the best place to start, since the sample size is both significant and recent.

However, we are then implying that this 162-game (6 months) story can be strictly applied to a one-month (13-game minimum, 22-game maximum) tournament when we very well know the erratic nature of baseball performances, fraught with countless streaks and slumps, both team and individual.

At any given time, baseball’s worst team is very capable of going on a 10-game winning sequence (well, maybe not this year’s White Sox), just like the best squad is capable of a 10-game cold spell. If that slump just happens to fall in October, then the pre-playoff favorite is eliminated in the short best-of-five Divisional round, and there goes most experts’ predicted bracket.

The other reason why fall baseball is very different than summer baseball is because the 18 worst teams are no longer competing in October. The 12 playoff qualifiers will only be playing each other in the big tournament, which lends much less significance to 62% of each contender’s regular season data (18 eliminated teams out of the total 29 opponents faced during the regular season).

Of course, I realize that predicting any sport is and always will be an inexact science. The best we can hope for is to find data trends that can help increase our odds of success over time.

So, I wanted to find out if there was a set of regular season stats that might be more telling of future playoff success.

THE FINDINGS

Entering this project, my hypothesis was that there must one specific stat or a set of indicators from the regular season that can forecast post-season success.

Ideally, we would be looking for the biggest sample size possible, but the game has changed so much over the past decade that I believe even going back to the 2010’s would be irrelevant.

That’s why I decided to use the past 5 World Series champions as the basis for my examination: the 2019 Washington Nationals, 2020 Los Angeles Dodgers, 2021 Atlanta Braves, 2022 Houston Astros, and 2023 Texas Rangers.

By tracking various regular season MLB ranks in key team statistical categories for these 5 fall juggernauts, we may be able to identify a code to ultimate playoff success.

I chose key data that covered every aspect of the game: hitting, pitching, and defense. I also added some key stats that have traditionally been associated with October success: September hot streak, runs differential, and strength of bullpen.

The first takeaway from the chart is that keeping a good runs differential and scoring a lot of runs during the regular season are key indicators of post-season success. So is playing very good defense (DRS). These three lines are the only ones where all champs were ranked in the top 10.

We’ve all heard the age-old saying that ‘the name of the game is pitching’, and that did hold true for a long time. Many World Series title holders of the past have won on the strength of a solid top 3 of the rotation and/or a lethal 1-2 combo on the back end of the bullpen.

But we seem to be at a crossroads where the bats are now at least as important as pitching and defense in defining a championship caliber roster. Last year’s Texas Rangers represent the epitome of this recent shift.

Although the Rangers seem to be the outlier on this chart, the 2019 Washington Nationals and 2021 Atlanta Braves also attained glory with less than stellar-to-horrible bullpens during the regular season.

However, affirming that offense now trumps pitching in importance would be jumping the gun. After all, three of the last five champs ranked better in pitching (ERA+) than in hitting (OPS+) during the regular season.

Aside from top 10 rankings in Runs Differential (RD), Runs Scored (RS) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), the only other indicator that all five of the last World Series winners share is a winning record in September. And save the Rangers, all of them were above a .600 winning percentage.

APPLYING THE MODEL TO THE 2024 PLAYOFFS

Now that we’ve figured out the hypothetical key indicators to winning the World Series, let’s try to figure out who this year’s champ is likely to be based on a process of elimination.

Among this year’s playoff qualifiers, which teams are in the top 10 in RD, RS, and DRS. Then, which of those have held a winning record in September? A .600 September winning percentage would solidify a contender’s case even more.

As you can see, only 2 teams are in the top 10 in the three identified key statistical categories that guarantee (hypothetically, of course) a solid playoff run (Dodgers and Brewers), and only one of those maintained a .600 winning percentage in September – you guessed it, the Dodgers.

That makes the Dodgers our obvious favourites to win it all, confirming our pre-season call for this juggernaut squad to materialize their potential as the consensus best roster in baseball.

THE BREAKDOWN

Here’s the breakdown of how I see this highly anticipated post-season playing out.

A.L. Wild Card Round (Best-of-3)

Detroit (6) vs Houston (3): Our chart shows that this is a series ripe for an upset. The ‘Stros may have scored more runs during the season than the Tigers, but they still aren’t an elite run producing squad. Detroit skipper A.J. Hinch will be facing the team that fired him amid the cheating scandal, and he leads a team that has realized its offensive potential in a hot September run. Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal should set the tone in Game 1 of this short series. Cinderella lives on. TIGERS WIN IN 2.

Kansas City (5) vs Baltimore (4): The Royals clearly have the best player in the series in shortstop phenom Bobby Witt Jr, and they have a definitive edge in defensive play. However, the O’s scoring ability and current form may end up deciding this one. The KC bullpen will have a tough time holding any lead during the series. Expect a tightly contested one. ORIOLES IN 3.

N.L. Wild Card Round (Best-of-3)

New York Mets (6) vs Milwaukee (3): Aside from the September record, the Brewers hold a clear edge on the Mets, who also had to play in that Monday doubleheader to get in the October dance. The deep Brew Crew lineup led by Jackson Chourio is stacked and ready to pounce. The contrast in bullpens is also stark and favors the home team in the series. BREWERS IN 2.

Atlanta (5) vs San Diego (4): The Padres have been the best team in the season’s second half and are second only to the Tigers in September winning percentage. The Braves had to go through the grinding Monday finish with the Mets, only to learn that Cy Young favorite Chris Sale’s back is aching at the worst possible time. The injury-riddled Braves did well just to make it to fall ball, but the Friars are just too good to be ousted in round 1. PADRES IN 2.

A.L. Divisional Round (Best-of-5)

Baltimore (4) vs New York Yankees (1): The Yanks have proven their superiority in the stretch run pennant race, pulling away from Baltimore over the last 2 months. The only areas the Orioles might be able to exploit are the back-ends of the Yankee rotation and bullpen, but the Bombers lineup led by sure-fire MVP Aaron Judge and Juan Soto is relentless. YANKEES IN 4.

Detroit (6) vs Cleveland (2): A battle of Central rivals that is sure to bring its fair share of animosity, as these two teams play the game with unmatched intensity. Save the September run, the Guardians edge out the Tigers in all key categories we identified – and Cleveland did play .600 ball during the last month. Jose Ramirez will work his magic, and this is where fatigue will start to show on the Motor City miracle hopefuls. GUARDIANS IN 4.

N.L. Divisional Round (Best-of-5)

San Diego (4) vs Los Angeles Dodgers (1): The Dodgers are the only team that qualifies as elite in all our key statistical categories, including a stellar .615 September record. The Padres’ poor defense will let them down during a series in which they couldn’t afford to give such a formidable opponent extra outs to work with. Jack Flaherty has been a key trade deadline acquisition for the Dodger rotation, and Shohei Ohtani is tearing the cover off the ball. DODGERS IN 4.

Milwaukee (3) vs Philadelphia (2): This is an intriguing match-up for any observer, but remember, we have the secret code. And the secret code tells us that the Phillies defense is the only clear weakness here on both sides. The Brewers may not be in top form coming in (13-12 in September), but every other indicator puts them second to the Dodgers. The Phils will give them all they can handle, but something tells me that defense and bullpen will be the deciding factors – advantage Brewers. BREWERS IN 5.

ALCS (Best-of-7)

Cleveland vs New York Yankees: This is a classic offense vs defense war of wills if we refer to our chart of postseason contenders. The Yanks have the unstoppable lineup, while the Guardians catch every ball hit their way. Where is the edge? Pitching. The Guardians hold a clear advantage on the mound. Emmanuel Clase has had one of the most dominant seasons ever seen by a reliever and he leads a deep bullpen that posted a video game-like 1.05 WHIP this season! GUARDIANS IN 6.

NLCS (Best-of-7)

Milwaukee vs Los Angeles Dodgers: These are clearly the two most complete teams in the majors, which makes the NLCS the de facto World Series. Yes, the Brewer lineup is deep, but it’s not Dodger deep. The Men in Blue are simply just a little bit better in every aspect of the game, and they have all the game-breakers in Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and let’s not forget the playoff secret weapons that are catcher Will Smith and clutch pest Chris Taylor. DODGERS IN 5.

World Series (Best-of-7)

Cleveland vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Remember the trend we talked about where run producing is starting to trump pitching when determining World Series champions? This is where it will materialize once again and confirm that pitching maybe ISN’T the name of the game anymore.

DODGERS IN 5.

Now, let the festivities begin, and let’s find out if this very innovative approach to handicapping the MLB playoffs has any merit, or if we just go back to the drawing board for 2025.