MLB MID-SEASON OBSERVATIONS

• Posted on 30 June 2025
• By Carl Lemelin
• 0

What were the top 10 stories of this MLB season's first half? Here are the players and teams to watch the rest of the way.

*Stats as of June 25th.

It’s the end of June. That means the mid-season point is about to be reached for all MLB teams. So, what have we learned since my 2025 MLB PREVIEW blog back in March?

Which teams are a huge surprise? Which franchises are doing everything wrong? Which players are performing up to par… or not? Three months is a good enough sample size to draw some conclusions – though not definitive – about some teams’ and players’ prospects for success the rest of the way in 2025.

Here are my top 5 team and player stories of the season’s first half.

TOP 5 TEAM STORIES

5-  The San Francisco Giants hitting on all cylinders: I had the Giants as the ultimate average team in my 2025 MLB PREVIEW, but staff ace Logan Webb is having a bounce-back season, and after recovering from a torn flexor tendon, Robbie Ray is looking like his Cy Young self from 2021. Camilo Doval and Tyler Rogers have been holding the fort in the pen as usual, but Randy Rodriguez – and his 0.74 WHIP and 10 holds – has been a revelation as one of the best relivers in the game. An adequate lineup has been led by Heliot Ramos, until a blockbuster June trade brought in superstar Rafael Devers from Boston. After addressing this lone weakness in the middle of the order, the Giants seem primed to give the Dodgers a run for their money in the NL West.

4- The Houston Astros keep on truckin’: Hasn’t it been three years now since experts have been warning of an Astros regression? The AL West powerhouse of the last decade just keeps on metamorphosizing into a beautiful butterfly, year after year, despite losing key pieces. 2025 is no different: Kyle Tucker traded to the Cubs, Alex Bregman moves on to Boston, Yordan Alvarez has only played 29 highly unproductive games, Justin Verlander signs in San Francisco, and 3 members of the rotation are on the IL. Yet, here they stand, 4.5 games up on the Mariners, on top of the AL West once again. Despite offensive struggles, staff aces Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez have carried the pitching load, while Josh Hader has saved all 20 opportunities he’s been afforded. I still believe the Spacemen will likely need to add a big bat to hold off a well-rounded Seattle squad.

3- The New York Mets contenders despite a sub-par first half from Juan Soto: Perpetual underperformers, finally the Mets were going to get over the hump and challenge the Braves and Phillies for the division title now that Soto had moved across town. Well, the Mets are contending – notwithstanding a current 1-9 run that allowed the Phils to take a 1.5 game lead in the NL East – but Soto has failed to meet the lofty expectations Mets Nation bestowed upon the superstar slugger. He has looked more like himself lately – now sporting a respectable .876 OPS – but it has been Pete Alonso who’s carried the offense in Queens. The rotation led by Kodai Senga has been the Mets’ saving grace. David Peterson, Clay Holmes and Griffin Canning have all performed above expectations. The real Mets probably end up somewhere between what they were for the first two-and-a-half months and what they’ve been over the last couple of weeks, which means they are going to be fighting for one of the three NL Wild Card spots.

2- A lackluster Atlanta Braves squad in trouble: They were favored by many to reclaim their rightful place as NL East kings in 2025. The Phillies ended the Braves dominance in 2024, after an impressive run of 6 straight titles for the Bravos. However, until very recently, the Atlanta offense had been sputtering. Even the injection of former MVP Ronald Acuna Jr couldn’t quite spark the rest of the lineup. The loss of star hurler Max Fried to free agency and Reynaldo Lopez to injury has downgraded the rotation from ‘great’ to ‘very good’. When factoring in a bottom-third MLB ranked lineup, we understand why Ryan Snitker’s bunch has struggled to an 11-19 record in one-run games despite a +29 run differential. That somewhat unlucky deficit can be blamed for the 6-game gap the Braves will need to make up for in the Wild Card race.

1- Are the Baltimore Orioles really this bad?: I would like to say that the team I picked to win the AL East in my 2025 MLB PREVIEW is just missing their young ace, Grayson Rodriguez – recovering from a lat injury – but this version of the O’s looks nothing like the 91-win club that finished second to the Yankees a year ago. Everyone of their young hitters – Gunner Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser, and Heston Kjerstad – has underperformed, veteran starters Zach Eflin and Charlie Morton have looked like shadows of themselves, and the bullpen has failed to protect most of the few leads the team was able to muster. Baltimore is ranked in the bottom third of baseball in every phase of the game, so it’s difficult for me to say they will be better in the second half. But things sure can’t get worse, can they?

*Bonus story – The historically atrocious Colorado Rockies: We all knew the Rockies were bad, but this bad? Really? With a 18-61 record and a .228 winning percentage, the lowly Rocks are on pace to become the worst team in the modern era. Last season’s pitiful Chicago White Sox (41-121, .253) currently hold that dubious honor. What’s absolutely depressing for Colorado fans is that Denver’s elevation has a lot to do with their inability to attract and/or retain pitching talent. They now store balls in a humidor and have raised the fences to level the playing field, but there’s nothing they can do about the Mile-High altitude flattening all off-speed pitches, making them much more hittable than they’d be in any other city in the majors. Spin rate just doesn’t affect the ball in Denver like it does elsewhere, and that will never change.

TOP 5 PLAYER STORIES

5- Jacob Wilson is a unicorn… and he’s a rookie!: In this era of low-event baseball, former major leaguer Jack’s son is the complete opposite: a high-event player. Wilson has put the ball in play in 88.1% of his plate appearances. He’s tallied 18 walks and has struck out only 20 times in 318 PA. He is second only to Aaron Judge in MLB with a .353 average. That allows his .394 OBP to rank 6^th despite that very low walk rate. The shortstop has also shown some pop with 9 homers and 40 RBI. Being able to make consistent contact through pitch recognition at this elite level is a repeatable skill that won’t leave this kid until way past his prime, so the A’s know they can count on this potent bat to be part of the heart of their lineup for many years to come.

4- “Lights-out” Josh Hader is back!: Yes, the intimidating lefty closer has regained the form that made him the best reliever in baseball as Milwaukee’s pen anchor from 2018 to 2022. He’s been human these last two-and-a-half seasons in San Diego and Houston, blowing 11 save opportunities. This year, he’s on his way to his career-best campaign. He’s a perfect 20-for-20 in saves and posts a sparkling 0.74 WHIP. The effort to significantly drop his walk rate has resulted in a career-best 7.86 K/BB ratio, which puts hitters in a much more aggressive posture, making his already impressive stuff play nastier than ever before. With a few other weapons in the Houston pen, this is a team opponents will not want to trail heading into the late innings down the stretch run.

3- Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal are multi Cy Young-bound: deGrom, Verlander, Kershaw, Martinez, Clemens, Johnson, Maddux. We’ve seen some dominant pitching in our lifetime, but have we ever seen two individuals who look as locked in – barring injury – for the next five Cy Young awards in their respective leagues? Sure, Hunter Brown, Max Fried, Garrett Crochet, Kris Bubic, and even Jacob deGrom are all having very good seasons in the AL, but Skubal is the man and everyone knows it. His consistency has been unparallelled since his breakout 2023 season. As for Skenes, MLB’s ERA leader (1.85), it looks like Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler are the only ones who can keep the Cy out of his hands for the foreseeable future, but if he avoids the dreaded T.J. surgery, no expert in their right mind would bet against him as a pre-season favorite.

2- Shohei doing Shohei things, again: After two one-inning starts, it remains to be seen how the Dodgers will employ Ohtani on the mound the rest of the way, but his bat alone puts him in the MVP conversation every year. His numbers are slightly down from last year, but there is one area I always found to be underrated in which Ohtani is dominating in 2025: runs scored. The Japanese phenom is on pace to surpass Jeff Bagwell’s modern-day high for runs in a season (152, in 2000). His 77 runs are 7 better than AL leader Judge and a whopping 14 up on NL second place man Elly De La Cruz. The Dodgers’ deep lineup should help him shatter Bagwell’s record. The Sho Man is currently 1^st in NL OPS (1.014) – good for 3^rd in MLB. He also ranks 3^rd in average fastball velocity (min. 2 starts), a sign that his arm is fully healthy. If the Dodgers slowly stretch him out during the second half, Ohtani is your shoe-in NL MVP!

1- Cal Raleigh is MLB’s latest superstar: His bat has consistently gotten louder and louder since his timid MLB debut in 2021, but Raleigh has hit a whole new level of slugging prowess this season. He ranks second only to Judge in MLB OPS (1.053), has hit a baseball best 32 dingers, also leads in RBI (69), and is absolutely carrying an otherwise underwhelming Seattle offense. Oh yeah, and he’s a catcher, and a darn good one too! I so regret not picking up that guy as a free agent in my dynasty fantasy league back in 2022, before he started raking. I always had an eye on this minor league slugger, but no one saw THIS coming, which makes this the number one story in baseball… so far.