MLB: FEARLESS 2025 PLAYOFF FORECAST

• Posted on 30 September 2025
• By Carl Lemelin
• 0

In a sport so impossible to handicap, have we found the ultimate cheat code? The system that correctly forecasted the Dodgers as champs last year is put to the test once again to predict the 2025 Playoffs.

There’s a crisp breeze in the air. The NFL season is in full flight. NHL and NBA camps are open. That can only mean one thing – it’s MLB playoff time!!!

It also means this blog space must inform you on this year’s October outlook, a new tradition where I attempt to identify the future World Series champs. The first few attempts were an exercise in futility, so last year, I went all out and decided to take gut feelings completely out of the equation.

As you can read in last year’s MLB PLAYOFF PREVIEW: A NOVEL APPROACH, I wanted to identify the key regular season team statistics that translated best to ultimate postseason success. If my 2024 prediction is any indication, the formula seems to work. The Dodgers came through and finally made me look good.

Now, let’s not get too excited. After all, L.A. was a juggernaut, the only team from the 2024 campaign to qualify as a contender under the standard I had established by comparing all champions since the 2019 World Series.

The 2024 Dodgers had been a consensus favorite since the pre-season, but when do favorites ever realize their expected destiny? No matter how strong a roster seems to be on paper, a baseball season – and the playoffs in particular – is such a crapshoot, during which so many unforeseen factors can put even the best laid plans in the proverbial shredder.

So, I will take the credit for correctly forecasting the Blue Crew as 2024 champs, thank you very much.

My key indicators haven’t lied since 2019. As a reminder, in last September’s blog, I uncovered four regular season team statistical categories that were indicators of eventual postseason supremacy: Runs Differential (RD), Runs Scored (RS), Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), and September record.

Indeed, when examining the last six World Series champions, we see that these four areas are the only ones among ten important team stats I had identified in which each eventual title-holder ranked in the top 10 during the regular season. They are highlighted in the following chart:

APPLYING THE MODEL TO THE 2025 PLAYOFFS

Last year, I ended the blog by writing: “Let’s find out if this very innovative approach to handicapping the MLB playoffs has any merit, or if we just go back to the drawing board for 2025.”

Although it was the Yankees who ended up representing the A.L. in the World Series – not the Guardians, as was my call – the only playoff participant that qualified as a contender under this new cheat code (i.e. the Dodgers) did come through in the end.

So, why mess with a winning formula six times over? Let’s separate the pretenders from the contenders among this fall’s field.

As you can see, the first realization stemming from this graphic is that picking a champion this time around won’t be as cut and dry as it was in 2024. This time, there is more than one team that ranks top 10 in all key stats.

The Dodgers, Cubs and Blue Jays are the three qualifiers, with the Yankees (average defense), Red Sox (so-so September record) and Brewers (average D and .500 record in September) barely missing out on my “contender target”.

THE BREAKDOWN

The AL painted a story of ups and downs for all its playoffs participants. The 2025 AL picture may just be the most unpredictable postseason in a long time, both leagues included. No team has that feeling of invincibility that makes us go their way, whether based on the roster, current form or in-season consistency.

In the NL, crippling injuries – particularly to the rotation – kept the Dodgers from being as dominant as expected. The Milwaukee Brewers avoided a forecasted drop-off and proved that deft baserunning may be the most undervalued aspect in the game by outscoring their expected output, based solely on hitting metrics.

With no team standing out as a clear favorite, here’s how I see things unfolding this October.

All ranks are in MLB.

A.L. Wild Card Round (Best-of-3)

Detroit (6) vs Cleveland (3): Two teams that fought to the very last day for the Central Pennant, with the Guardians coming out on top. Two teams going in completely different directions entering October! Cleveland overcame a 15.5 game deficit over the last month-and-a-half to upset the sputtering Tigers. In a best-of-three, anything goes, and Tarik Skubal looms large. However, the Tiger pen isn’t what it was last year, while the Guardians’ ranked 5^th in WHIP. That and recent form are the difference makers. GUARDIANS WIN IN 3.

Boston (5) vs New York Yankees (4): It may be tempting to say that whoever wins the superstar battle between Aaron Judge and Garrett Crochet in Game 1 will decide this rivalry series, but let’s remember that all three games will be played in the Bronx. Yankee stadium will always favor slugging teams in the long run, and the Yanks have been the best hitting team in baseball all season, with a 118 OPS+. No team holds a marked edge in pitching or defense. This will be a fun one to watch! YANKEES IN 3.

N.L. Wild Card Round (Best-of-3)

Cincinnati (6) vs Los Angeles Dodgers (3): Don’t be fooled by the Dodgers’ slight fall-off from a dominant 2024 campaign. They’re still the DODGERS! The Reds barely crept into the fall dance, thanks to another classic Mets collapse. Shohei Ohtani-led L.A. is elite in every aspect of the game while the Reds lack a reliable big bat, have a middling pitching staff past Hunter Greene, and while they make the routine plays (4^th in defensive efficiency), they don’t make many difficult ones (22^nd in DRS). DODGERS IN 2.

San Diego (5) vs Chicago Cubs (4): The Padres are in the playoffs courtesy of one thing, and one thing only: their lights-out bullpen. Nick Pivetta had a nice season, but he shouldn’t be the ace of a contending squad. On the other hand, besides the Dodgers, the stats show that the Cubs are the most well-rounded roster in the playoffs. Aside from future ace Cade Horton, they are fully healthy and in good form. CUBS IN 2.

A.L. Divisional Round (Best-of-5)

New York Yankees (4) vs Toronto (1): In this epic ‘Battle of the East’, let’s give the slight edge in offense and pitching to the Bronx Bombers… But it is slight. However, the clear advantage for the Jays is what they accomplish with the leather. Canada’s team has consistently been the best in the field over the past two seasons (1^st in DRS in 2024 and 4^th in 2025). The Yanks? Well, we all remember what their downfall was in last year’s World Series, didn’t we? Their 13 rank in DRS suggests that it is still the sore spot that a more complete opponent can exploit. Bo Bichette’s return to health may be crucial to Toronto’s fortunes. BLUE JAYS IN 5.

Cleveland (3) vs Seattle (2): The boys from the Great Northwest may be newcomers to the fall party this year, but they come in bolstered by key trade deadline acquisitions: Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez have added a much-needed one-two punch to the middle of a now formidable lineup! These additions combined with the Mariners’ usual stealth pitching and defense should ensure they make quick work of an overmatched Guardians group. MARINERS IN 4.

N.L. Divisional Round (Best-of-5)

Chicago Cubs (4) vs Milwaukee (1): This ‘War of the Central’ may be the most intriguing series of them all. It pits the Brewers’ superior baserunning and pitching against the Cubs’ relentless lineup and athletic defense. Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio will need to produce October magic if the Brew Crew is to advance to the LCS, because this Cubs team, led by Kyle Tucker, is stacked and ready to rake! Our first upset. CUBS IN 5.

Los Angeles Dodgers (3) vs Philadelphia (2): Even without ace Zack Wheeler for the entire second half, the Phillies’ rotation ranks a clear-cut first in FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching) at 3.40 (0.33 ahead of the second place Giants). But that’s where the Phils’ list of advantages ends. The Dodgers have more quality AND depth in the pen and in the batting order, and they play much better defense. The return to health of star hurlers Tyler Glasnow and Roki Sasaki, and the two-way threat that Shohei represents will be too much for Philly to overcome. DODGERS IN 4.

ALCS (Best-of-7)

Seattle vs Toronto: Although the Mariners are a significantly better offensive team now than they were before the trade deadline, the Jays are simply deeper from 1 to 9. But that’s not where I see this series being won. Toronto has saved 44 more runs on defense than Seattle this season. That advantage in the field will loom large in an extended series. The Jays finally slay their nemesis from their last playoff appearance. BLUE JAYS IN 6.

NLCS (Best-of-7)

Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Apologies to all Philly Phanatics out there, but these are clearly the two best NL sides. What sets the Dodgers apart? They can count on three MVP’s, including one that should win his second straight this year in Shohei. He will be a bullpen option in the Wild Card round and their fourth starter in all other rounds. If Dodger pitching can get Kyle Tucker out on a regular basis, the rest of the Cubs lineup is void of postseason experience and could be intimidated. DODGERS IN 5.

World Series (Best-of-7)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto: I was one year early on my prediction of the Jays winning their division and getting to the Big Show (my pre-season call in the spring of 2024). Unfortunately for Canadian ball fans, all the metrics point to another Dodgers title. Dave Roberts leads his Blue Bunch to a repeat. Are we looking at the birth of a dynasty in baseball?

DODGERS IN 6.

That’s right, I pick the Dodgers to accomplish a rare repeat, based on their superior rankings in the key team stats I’ve identified from past World Series champs. That said, if the Cubs, Blue Jays or even the Red Sox – they did have an above-.500 record in September – end up with a ring by November, this system can still claim to be infallible over the past 7 postseasons.

Now, let’s sit back and enjoy another magical October of MLB baseball!