2025 MLB PREVIEW

• Posted on 23 March 2025
• By Carl Lemelin
• 0

With its embarrassment of riches, it is impossible not to put the L.A. Dodgers at the top of any power ranking going into the 2025 season.

Even though baseball seems to be at a crossroads concerning competitive balance – mostly due to the Dodgers’ bottomless spending spree – the sport’s unpredictability never ceases to amaze.

Yes, last year’s World Series participants were big spenders. The Dodgers got the better of baseball’s most historic franchise, the Yankees, in a battle of the big bucks. But only one year earlier, we had a D-Backs-Rangers World Series that no one could have foreseen.

The intricacies of the game, and the fact that superstars have a relatively limited influence on results over a complete season, compared to all other major sports, make baseball the most difficult game to handicap.

The lineup and defense are a nine-man unit, the rotation relies on five or six arms, and the bullpen consists of a seven or eight pitcher-crew. Mix in the tons of injuries that every MLB team endures during the 162-game grind, and you have a recipe for heaps of volatility in team performance.

Last year may have gone the way most expected in the end (including me in my 2024 preview – how’s that for a shameless plug?), with the Men in Blue winning the championship, but they didn’t dominate the season, as many experts projected.

In fact, the Dodgers led MLB with 98 wins, the lowest leading total (not including the 2020 Covid-shortened campaign) in over a decade, when their L.A. cousins, the Angels, tallied the same total in 2014.

Now that we’ve established how difficult it is to forecast an MLB season, let’s give it another go – I have always been a glutton for punishment.

I gave each team a respective grade for: Lineup / Rotation / Bullpen / Defense (in parentheses). Since I consider these 4 aspects of the game just as important in determining a team’s odds of success, I weighed each grade the same, then converted it to the following numerical values: A+=1, A=2, A-=3, B+=4, B=5, B-=6, C+=7, C=8, C-=9, D+=10, D=11, D-=12.

So, the lower the total score, the better the team grade, C being MLB average. In case of a tie, the lowest total pitching score (Rotation + Bullpen) gets the nod, with the best rotation grade serving as the second tiebreaker. The average score for all 30 teams is 27.5.

C- Projected Division Champion (league playoff seed)

*Denotes Projected Wild Card team (league playoff seed)

A.L. EAST

C(2)-1- Baltimore Orioles (A-/B/A-/B- = 17): You’re not going to replace a Corbin Burnes at the top of your rotation, but adding depth to the back of an already solid core can certainly smooth things out. Veteran Charlie Morton and Japanese standout Tomoyuki Sugano bring poised experience to the mound. There is a chance that Grayson Rodriguez becomes the ace many projected him to be this season. Tyler O’Neill replaces Anthony Santander in the outfield, but look for the rest of this young group, led by stars SS Gunner Henderson and C Adley Rutschman, to keep improving.

*(4)-2- New York Yankees (B+/C+/B/B+ = 20): Panic time in the Bronx? The Bombers were hit with some terrible misfortune when 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil suffered a lat injury early in the spring. Then, a meteor struck the Big Apple when news hit that ace Gerrit Cole was scheduled for Tommy John surgery. Bleak as this all may seam, let’s remember what the Tigers were able to do last year after Jack Flaherty went down mid-season. The Yankees have the roster depth and resources to tamper this setback and still make it to October. The Max Fried signing suddenly looks like a season-saving move!

*(6)-3- Toronto Blue Jays (C+/B-/C-/A+ = 23): A perennial underachiever, this franchise is due for a wave of good fortune. George Springer’s steep decline, Bo Bichette’s lost 2024, and Alejandro Kirk’s puzzling diminishing bat-to-ball skills have all contributed to the run-scoring drought in The Six. Anthony Santander’s bat has been brought in to help, but Bichette regaining his .300-hitting form is a must for this offense to click at a Wild Card-clinching pace again. I also foresee a bounce back from an awful pen in 2024. The Jays can prevent runs in the field like no other.

4- Tampa Bay Rays (C-/B-/A-/C+ = 25): These weren’t the Rays of old last season. 2024 marked the first time the Rays finished under .500 (80-82) since 2017, when they posted the same record. The plan remains, and the cupboards are still well stocked, so we can expect some improvement, especially with Shane McClanahan back to lead a young, unproven rotation. Expect an uptick from an uncharacteristically poor defense last year. The Rays can always rely on a plethora of eclectic arms in the bullpen to compensate for a constant lack of star power. They’ll be a player in the Wild Card race once again.

5- Boston Red Sox (A-/C/D/A-) = 33): Said it last year, I’ll say it again: Alex Cora, as usual, had his Sox overachieve in 2024. Ace Garrett Crochet and veteran reliever Aroldis Chapman were brought in to shore up the Sox’s biggest weakness, pitching. The problem is that any sustained success on the mound will rest on closer Liam Hendricks (who didn’t pitch at all last year) and newcomer to the rotation, Walker Buehler (who isn’t who he used to be, despite his postseason success with the World Series champs). Alex Bregman will help bolster an already potent lineup.

A.L. CENTRAL

C(1)-1- Detroit Tigers (C+/A-/A/B+ = 17): What we saw from the Tigers in the second half of 2024 was no fluke. It was the start of a new trend. The refusal of organizations to backtrack from the Statcast-driven emphasis on max velocity and spin will make teams much more reliant on relievers in the future. The success the Tigers enjoyed with a 2-man rotation has opened eyes all over the Majors, and you will see many copy-cats in the coming years, especially from teams with questionable rotation depth. That’s right, I have top Manager A.J. Hinch’s Big Cats snatching the AL’s #1 seed next postseason.

*(5)-2- Cleveland Guardians (C-/C-/A+/A = 22): The departures of slugger Josh Naylor and defensive wiz Andres Gimenez will have an impact, but the overall defense is still very sound, and there is no better bullpen in baseball, anchored by Mr. Automatic, Emmanuel Clase (post-season struggles aside). Jose Ramirez is always a threat to win AL MVP. Fan favorite Big Christmas (Jhonkenzy Noel) will look to pick up some of the power slack left by Naylor's exit.

3- Minnesota Twins (B+/B-/B-/D+ = 26): The Twins’ chances of contending for a playoff spot rest on one single, elusive factor: health. Productive stars like Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton and starting pitcher Joe Ryan are walking crutches. If the injury trend continues for these key clogs, you can downgrade all these grades a notch or two, and the Twins are an easy lock for fourth in the Central.

4- Kansas City Royals (C+/B-/C-/B+ = 26): The second half of the 2024 season may have been a truer testament to the Royals’ real upside for 2025. The pitching overperformed in the first half and skewed our evaluation of this up-and-coming franchise. That said, they are on an accelerated path to contention, headed by the most complete superstar in the game in Bobby Witt Jr. Cole Ragans gives the rotation legitimacy, and the pen is underrated. If everything goes right, they could be back in the October dance.

5- Chicago White Sox (D-/D-/D/D = 46): If the infamous Black Sox were a disaster for their shady shenanigans, the current White Sox are a disaster on the field and in the front office. Now without the only star they had (Garrett Crochet) gone, they are not worth wasting one more line on.

A.L. WEST

C(3)-1- Seattle Mariners (D+/A/B+/B+ = 20): Not a lot of turnover in Seattle. They need their franchise guy, Julio Rodriguez, to keep trending up after an encouraging second half of 2024, because this is by far the weakest lineup among all projected division champs. The brass believes in the adage “The name of the game is pitching”, and in this weakened AL West, the Mariners’ excellent contingent of pitching and defense should be enough to overcome any offensive shortcomings.

2- Houston Astros (B-/C+/C+/C = 28): Stalwart Alex Bregman has moved on after an illustrious career in Houston. In comes Isaac Paredes to take over at third, and Christian Walker is a big boost for the lineup at first. But a franchise that has always prided itself on having lights-out pitching is now looking very average on the hill. Yusei Kikuchi gave them quite a boost after he arrived from Toronto at the deadline, but he has signed in L.A. with the Angels. If they can hang tight with the Mariners until Cristian Javier comes back for the stretch run, maybe they can give it another run.

3- Texas Rangers (C/C-/C-/B = 31): The World Champs of two years ago suffered through a year-long hangover. Virtually all their hitters regressed in 2024, including one of the best in baseball, Corey Seager. Will they all bounce back? The front office moved to inject a little life into a stale lineup by signing DH Joc Pederson and trading for 1B Jake Burger. Even if that all works out, it’s like Groundhog Day on the mound for this franchise, notoriously inept at developing pitching talent. Even a 2019 version of Jacob deGrom couldn’t save this mediocre pitching staff.

4- Athletics (D+/C/C/D = 37): The team without a city is also a team without an identity. The original Moneyball child has long lost its way. The arrivals of Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs (if healthy), along with returning ace closer Mason Miller bring the pitching up to average, but the lineup led by Brent Rooker is still very underwhelming. They will be banking on continued success from J.J. Bleday and Shea Langeliers, along with a breakout rookie year for top prospect Jacob Wilson.

5- Los Angeles Angels (D+/D/C-/C = 38): Another long year awaits the Anaheim faithful, but that’s not even the worst of it. Their farm system is ranked dead last in the majors! Our condolences go out to all who cared about Mike Trout’s legacy.

N.L. EAST

C(2)-1- Atlanta Braves (B/A/A/B = 14): Call me crazy (wouldn’t be the first time…), but it looks like the Braves could be better than last year despite saying good bye to starters Max Fried and Charlie Morton. Ace Spencer Strider, who missed all of 2024, should be back sometime in May, just like 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. Reynaldo Lopez could have stolen the Cy Young from teammate Chris Sale if he was fully healthy, and Spencer Schwellenbach looks like he’s the real deal. The line-up is still one of the best but is looking for an uptick from stars like Matt Olson and Austin Riley.

*(5)-2- Philadelphia Phillies (A/A-/C-/C = 22): A swap of closers. That’s the gist of the Phillies’ player movement this offseason: Jordan Romano replaces Carlos Estevez. So, we know the Phils will be good once again. Bryce Harper and company will most likely be the highest scoring lineup outside of Chavez Ravine. The rotation led by veteran workhorse Zack Wheeler is deep, but Romano is coming off elbow surgery and the rest of the pen is average at best. This group doesn’t do a very good job of catching the ball for a contender.

3- New York Mets (A-/C-/C/C+ = 27): Juan Soto was the free agent splash of the winter. He makes a good lineup incrementally better, especially since the Mets were able to re-sign slugger Pete Alonso. The effectiveness of the rotation will hinge on ace Kodai Senga’s health, which explains my below-average rating. Will closer Edwin Diaz be able to maintain the incredible progress he made in a rebound 2024?

4- Washington Nationals (D+/C/D+/C- = 37): Dylan Crews may be ranked as the 4^th best prospect in baseball, but he is assuredly the most complete, and he will be in Washington at one point or another this season. That – along with the breakout of star SS C.J. Abrams – was the exciting news. The less sexy news is that the Nats are still a few years away from being competitive in a “three-headed monster” NL East.

5- Miami Marlins (D/D/C/D+ = 40): It certainly looks like the promise the Fish showed on the mound just a few years ago was but a mirage. At least ace Sandy Alcantara is back and healthy again. Other than SS Xavier Edwards, there’s just not much else for Miami fans to be giddy about.

N.L. CENTRAL

C(3)-1- Milwaukee Brewers (B+/C/A-/A = 18): I want to preface this rating by stating that it rests on a fully healthy Brandon Woodruff – coming off shoulder surgery – as he slots every other starter in their rightful place. They produced many more runs than expected last year, thanks to Rookie of the Year nominee Jackson Chourio performing like a grizzled veteran. Christian Yelich also had his best season since he won MVP in 2018 and barely missed repeating in 2019; that’s not to mention young CF Garret Mitchell and his shiny .805 career OPS. The bullpen and defense have been the Brew Crew’s calling cards for years and still are among the best in baseball.

*(6)-2- Chicago Cubs (B/B/C-/B = 24): Soto was the talk of free agent frenzy, but the Cubs got the big prize of the trade market this offseason in Kyle Tucker. His MVP-worthy bat in the middle of this lineup will do wonders for co-stars Seiya Suzuki and Dansby Swanson. Getting SP Matthew Boyd locked up was a shrewd, understated move that shores up a depth issue in the rotation. Cubby relievers may not have the name recognition of some other pens, but closer Porter Hodge leads a group of quality arms that will hold their own.

3- St-Louis Cardinals (D+/C-/C/B- = 33): Not sure how the Cards managed to be a middle-of-the-pack offense last season. Paul Goldschmidt (now a Yankee) and Nolan Arenado both had their worst seasons in their long, productive careers. This proud franchise is now clearly rebuilding, after years of contending in a weak division. The bullpen is headed by Ryan Helsley, one of the very best closers, but the rotation led by Sonny Gray isn’t intimidating anymore.

4- Cincinnati Reds (C-/C-/C-/D = 33): The Reds are one of only 2 teams that I have rated at sub-par – C- or worse – in each of the four categories, and the other is the embarrassingly awful White Sox. Brady Singer’s acquisition almost elevates the rotation up to par, but there is too much uncertainty in the bottom three to consider it an average group. Elly De La Cruz is becoming a superstar, but he needs help to come elsewhere than from Spencer Steer to make this lineup a pitcher bugaboo. Finally, Alexis Diaz needs to regain his closer mojo, and the defense needs to make more plays.

5- Pittsburgh Pirates (D+/C/D/D+ = 34): Paul Skenes has arrived and is already favored by many to win the Cy Young one year after being named Rookie of the Year! He and fellow phenom Oneil Cruz are the only bright spots on an otherwise lackluster mix of journeymen and up-and-comers. The system seems healthy, but this is a stagnating franchise until the pups all graduate and are ready to contribute.

N.L. WEST

C(1)-1- Los Angeles Dodgers (A+/A+/A/A = 6): Only in baseball can a defending champ improve on their roster during the off-season. If the Dodgers were a juggernaut in 2024, I don’t know what to call them this year – a shoo-in? I thought they couldn’t be beat last year, and – for once – I was right! Adding another Japanese phenom in Roki Sasaki to the rotation, along with Shohei Ohtani at some point, not to mention two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell is almost an embarrassment to the game. Barring injury, this edition of the Blue Crew should flirt with the all-time record of 116 wins.

*(4)-2- San Diego Padres (B+/B/B+/D+ = 23): Super set-up man Tanner Scott has moved on to the So-Cal rival Dodgers, but with the trio of Robert Suarez (closer), Jason Adam, and Jeremiah Estrada, the pen is still in very capable hands. However, the losses of Ha-Seong Kim – a good defender – and late-bloomer OF Jurickson Profar are going to be felt. Nothing that this super-talented group can’t handle if Fernando Tatis Jr. can stay healthy, Xander Bogaerts can maintain the return to form he showed late in the season, and Manny Machado can stay interested from April to September.

3- Arizona Diamondbacks (A/B+/D/C- = 26): Corbin Burnes is a huge get for a rotation in need of a workhorse ace to help the strong duo of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly shoulder the load. Josh Naylor is replacing Christian Walker at 1B, where he will bring the same offense, but not the same glove! There is no apparent replacement for departed DH Joc Pederson and his 151 OPS+ however. The bullpen lost a lot of its lustre from 2023 and is the main reason the D-Backs went from NL champs to missing the playoffs. Look for a big bounce-back for superstar Corbin Carrol.

4- San Fransisco Giants (C+/C/C/C- = 32): Well, we can say the Giants are a very well-balanced squad. The problem is that they are average everywhere, and that doesn’t make you a contender. Ace Logan Webb is coming off a down year and Robby Ray is back from T.J. surgery. The lineup is filled with decent, toolsy players that don’t stand out, but make for a surprisingly productive offense. Matt Chapman’s hitting seemed rejuvenated in 2024. If the Giants get to tap into OF Jung Hoo Lee’s MLB upside, that will help both the run production and the defense.

5- Colorado Rockies (C/D-/D/C+ = 38): Much like on the south side of Chicago, there just isn’t much to hang your hopes on for fans in the Mile-High City. Year after year, the team rolls out an OK lineup with terrible pitching. There is the altitude factor that keeps the Rockies from signing prominent pitching free agents, but how is it that the organization never produces home-grown talent on the mound? When German Marquez – coming off 2023 T.J. surgery – is your projected ace, you know it’s going to be a long summer. On the bright side, SS Ezequiel Tovar looks like a real star.

PLAYOFF OUTLOOK

What would a fearless forecast be without going all out with a playoff prediction. I fully realize that this is reputation suicide, but this blog wouldn’t be as fun to write if I didn’t go for it, so here we go…

A.L. Wild Card

(6) Blue Jays over (3) Mariners

(4) Yankees over (5) Guardians

A.L. Divisional

(2) Orioles over (6) Blue Jays

(1) Tigers over (4) Yankees

A.L.C.S.

(2) Orioles over (1) Tigers

N.L. Wild Card

(6) Cubs over (3) Brewers

(5) Phillies over (4) Padres

N.L. Divisional

(2) Braves over (6) Cubs

(1) Dodgers over (5) Padres

N.L.C.S.

(1) Dodgers over (2) Braves

World Series 2025

I finally got it right last year, predicting the Dodgers would finally prevail, after failing in their title quest since the shortened 2020 season, despite out-spending every other franchise by a country – sorry, beach – mile.

So, why make the mistake of betting against them now? Especially when I believe that they have increased the gap between themselves and the next best team, the Braves. Barring a rash of injuries no team has ever endured – because the roster is so deep – I don’t foresee any scenario in which an opponents can win a race to 3 wins (or even less one to 4 wins) next October.

It will be another step taken for a young, hungry and surging Orioles group. They will learn even more from punching their ticket to the pinnacle event in the sport, but in the end, the bulldozer that is the Dodger all-star team will simply be way too much for them to handle.

As I watch Game 1 of the Tokyo Series between the Dodgers and Cubs, I wish you Happy Playball 2025!