HANDICAPPING THE MLB PLAYOFF PICTURE

• Posted on 8 September 2022
• By Carl Lemelin
• 0

The new playoff format makes for an exhilarating stretch run!

Thanks to the new playoff format this season, MLB has created an environment that will make future Septembers more suspenseful than a Hitchcock movie, and with more peaks and valleys for each fan base than Chef Gordon Ramsey’s pulse during an episode of Master Chef!

The idea behind the decision to add one more Wild Card team in each league was to excite more markets during the stretch run, consequently drawing more eyes toward MLB baseball as the NFL season gets under way.

I love the idea. Baseball remains the major sport with the least number of teams qualifying for the championship tournament, so that should satisfy the traditionalists. I believe that, in most seasons, this will give approximately 60% of the field a legitimate shot at the playoffs going into the final regular season month.

But not this year. 2022 is an oddity in that there seems to be a clear 50-50 split between the contenders and the also-rans.

With one month to go and a 12-team field yet to be determined, unless something out of a Disney fairy-tale enchants us all, only 15 hopefuls remain. Here’s my shot at trying to figure out who has the most realistic path to winning it all come early November.

THE METHOD

With five months of data to draw from, the only way to predict the future is to analyze the past. I decided to focus on 6 key team stats that I think give us the best snapshot at each contender’s overall chances of performing at the highest level come crunch time.

OPS+: An advanced, all-encompassing stat that measures a team’s overall offensive output by putting the standard OPS into context (accounting for ballpark and strength of schedule effects) and streamlining it to a relative percentage, 100 being a league average OPS+, over 100 a better than average result.

 ERA: The most telling team stat to evaluate overall pitching strength.

Defensive Runs Saved (DRS): Another analytics innovation that tells us how many runs were saved by a team’s defensive prowess. Contrary to the traditional fielding percentage (that only accounts for errors made), this stat computes extraordinary plays made out of the fielder’s standard zone and credits good positioning.

Defensive efficiency (Deff): A complement to the former, this stat simply measures the percentage of ball in play against a team’s defense that are converted to outs. Combining ranks in both defensive metrics provides a great barometer of a squad’s proficiency with glove.

Bullpen WHIP: There are other indicators of a good bullpen, but essentially all a manager asks of his relievers is to allow the least number of free passes and hits as possible.

Inherited Runners Scored (IRS): The other reason relievers earn their paycheck – not allowing inherited runners to cross home plate. Usually, a high K-rate and low walk rate help accomplish a high rank in this category.

PROCESS OF ELIMINATION

One of the key discoveries that came out of the data revolution spawned by Bill James’ now legendary Best Seller Moneyball is that all aspects of the game (offense, defense and pitching) have a similar impact on the result of games and seasons.

And in the playoffs, only the cream of the crop battles it out. That means any major weakness will be exposed and leave a team with no legitimate chance at going all the way.

Of the 15 with a realistic shot at the World Series title, let’s start by eliminating the ones that have proven deficiencies in either one of the major stats selected above. Any MLB rank 20^th or above in any one of the 6 categories I believe drastically reduces a team’s odds (weak ranks in red).

New York Mets (OPS+ Rk-8, ERA-5, DRS-19, Deff-18, BuWHIP-19, IRS-29) – It may be a stretch to eliminate the team with the 3^rd best record in the majors right off the bat, but they are second-to-last in allowing baserunners to score. We all know from experience that doesn’t bode well for October! Edwin Diaz and Adam Ottavino can take care of the late innings, but in best-of-7 series against the very best you will need a stronger bridge if a starter does falter.

St-Louis Cardinals (1, 17, 5, 7, 11, 21) – Same fatal crack in the armor here as the Mets. At least, the Cards’ BuWHIP rank suggests there may be a bid of bad luck in play here, with runners scoring on outs, but the lack of a bonafide closer gives me little confidence we’ll see Oliver Marmol’s bunch playing in November.

Philadelphia Phillies (10, 7, 27, 19, 24, 19) – Two fatal flaws for the Phils, not enough plays made to keep traffic down on the basepaths and not enough quality relievers to keep them from crossing the plate.

San Diego Padres (13, 16, 22, 14, 15, 28) – Copy that from above. We could also mention the chemistry mess that their trade deadline deals seem to have created, or the Fernando Tatis Jr performance enhancing drugs debacle, or Josh Hader going from the best relief pitcher ever to one of the worst in a matter of months.

Toronto Blue Jays (4, 15, 6, 20, 14, 3) – Stats show the Jays are a solid squad overall. Their defense is athletic and makes a lot of spectacular plays, but they also botch too many routine plays. Sorry Jays Nation, but you can’t do that and survive very long in the fall tournament.

Baltimore Orioles (21, 9, 8, 21, 8, 10) – Same defensive issues as the Jays for best surprise of the 2022 season, but you can add a lack of offensive pop to the O-birds’ list of reasons they will meet a quick demise, if they do make it to the fall dance.

Minnesota Twins (6, 20, 11, 9, 17, 15) – The Twins possess an intimidating lineup, but their middling bullpen won’t be enough to compensate for a weak rotation.

ELITE POWER RANKINGS

That leaves us with an Elite 8 group of teams that show no apparent weaknesses. We are now comparing levels of soundness, so let’s count them down (top 5 ranks in green).

8- Milwaukee Brewers (9, 11, 9, 11, 13, 8) – The only team on this countdown currently out of a playoff spot. They could still make the cut, but their ranks suggest they would be among the weaker playoff participants.

7- Cleveland Guardians (16, 10, 4, 6, 4, 13) – Here is my first Cinderella candidate! Their rotation is far from elite, but an elite defense and bullpen are usually what drive fairy-tale October runs. They just may not have enough meat around Jose Ramirez to scare the rest of the field.

6- Atlanta Braves (7, 3, T15, 16, 7, 16) – Solid overall ranks for the defending champs, but only the starting pitching can be qualified as elite. That makes it hard for me to place them in the top 5, despite their 80-51 record, good for 4^th overall. Tough to repeat these days!

5- Seattle Mariners (11, 13, 7, 4, 2, 1) – After an underwhelming start, the only franchise yet to appear in a World Series has turned on the jets since July 1^st (35-16). All key indicators are there to make them a top contender. Their bullpen doesn’t cry out marquee names, but its efficiency is second to none. Starters are the main question mark, but the defense is there to back them up and adding a healthy Mitch Haniger in the heart of the lineup gives a decent offense an additional boost.

4- Tampa Bay Rays (12, 6, 14, 8, 5, 4) – What else is new? The analytics darlings do everything well! No surprise, they rank as elite contenders in a data-based power ranking. And can you imagine how unhittable that bullpen will get when it adds Tyler Glasnow? Oh, and Randy Arozarena is heating up again as crunch time approaches. Wander Franco’s return is questionable but hasn’t been ruled out.

3- Houston Astros (5, 2, 3, 3, 6, 12) – Yep, everybody’s favorite villains are very much in the running again. Everything but the pen is elite, even though Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Yuli Gurriel have all underperformed. The Stros’ general playoff experience gives them an edge over any competitor but this list’s number one.

2- New York Yankees (3, 4, 1, 2, 3, 7) – The Bombers’ second half drop-off was to be expected, as they had built a ridiculous lead in the strongest division in baseball. But all indicators remain strong. Despite having the 5^th best MLB record (79-52), the Yanks post the second ranked run differential (+195). Everyone knows Garrett Cole, but rotation depth may be their most underrated asset.

1- Los Angeles Dodgers (2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2) – I would love to give you an edgy take on the World Series favorites, stand out from the other power rankings out there. But as you can see, the ranks say it all. Unless you want me to add that superlative 41-9 run they just went on, that is. Yeah, not having the SoCal boys as ultimate favorites would quash whatever credibility this exercise may claim.

*Stats are as of August 31st